September 10 marks the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, the day when roughly three out of four years have a named storm churning somewhere in the basin. This year, the Atlantic is quiet. No hurricanes have formed yet, and the National Hurricane Center doesn’t expect anything to develop over the next seven days. Five named storms have come and gone, but accumulated cyclone energy, the measure forecasters use to gauge overall season strength, is running about 92% below normal.
The culprit is El Niño, which is strengthening in the Pacific and increasing wind shear across the Atlantic. That shear tears developing storms apart before they can organize, even with ocean temperatures still warm enough to fuel a major system. The result is a strange split: toasty water, empty radar. Forecasters are quick to point out that September 10 is the top of the climatological hill, not the finish line. Hurricane season runs through November 30, and late-season storms have reached Florida before.
For Suncoast residents, the takeaway is simple. Enjoy the calm, but don’t treat it as an all-clear. Keep your water, batteries, and storm plans where you can reach them for another couple of months, and check in on neighbors who might need a hand getting ready. When do you usually pack away your hurricane supplies for the year?
